The US mobile payments market will reach $90bn (£56bn) by 2017, a 48 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the $12.8bn spent in 2012. The figures come Forrester’s latest five year mobile payments forecast, which segments mobile payments into three categories: in-store mobile payments; mobile peer-to-peer (P2P) and remittances; and mobile remote commerce (mCommerce).
While all three categories will see healthy growth over the next five years, Forrester believes that in-store mobile payments will far outpace the growth of mCommerce (which represented 90 per cent of the total mobile payments market in 2012). By the end of 2017, Forrester forecasts mCommerce to drop from a 90 per cent to 50 per cent share, while in-store payments will jump from a 4 per cent to 45 per cent share.
“Lower barriers to adoption, increased convenience, and early entrants striving for scale will be important drivers of growth,” says Analyst Denée Carrington in a blog post.
In a second Forecast, Forrester drills down into the growth of mCommerce over the next five years, noting that, while the analyst expects the mCommerce penetration rate to double by 2017, mCommerce in the US is still only a tiny portion of eCommerce, and, consequently, a minuscule share of overall retail.
In fact, analyst Sucharita Mulpuru notes in a blog post, only 3 per cent of all eCommerce transactions (including daily deals, but excluding travel) were completed on mobile devices in 2012, and this number will only reach 9 per cent in 2017.