Despite the gloomy forecast made by the CEO of BlackBerry, makers of the doomed Playbook, tablet usage is predicted to grow by more than five times by 2017.

Shipments will reach 419m units and be worth $95b in 2017, with 181m tablets sold worldwide this year, according to a report by CCS Insights. The company predicts that more than 1bn will be in use in 2017, up from 200m at the start of 2013.

Apple sales will continue to grow but its dominance will be challenged by Android devices, which are already capturing the lower end of developed markets and a significant share in emerging markets. Low prices have led to faster than expected adoption in markets like China, prompting CCS to uplift its forecast. Microsoft will struggle to become a major player at least until late 2014, perhaps even ever, the report said. Today it is grappling with licensing costs and a weak app ecosystem.

“Winning a solid share in the tablet market is an absolute must for Microsoft. However, it faces significant challenges with Windows 8,” said Marina Koytcheva, director of forecasting. “The current licence fees for Windows 8 Pro and Windows RT mean its hard for manufacturers to compete effectively and make a reasonable margin on tablets at the right prices, despite Microsofts effort to increase marketing support. Furthermore, the availability and quality of apps for Windows 8 are not strong enough.”