Developer investment in AR (Augmented Reality) projects will rise to $650-700m (£420-452m) this year, according to forecasts from ABI Research. By 2018, that figure will rise to $2.5bn, driven primarily by retail marketing campaigns – which, as ABI mobile industry analyst Aapo Markkanen points out, “have been driving the market for the last two years.”

2013 will see the release of 10,000 AR apps, according to ABI, cumulatively garnering 220m downloads over the course of the year.

However, speaking at the AR Summit this morning, Markkanen cautioned that consumer adoption of AR technology will likely be slow – especially for wearable devices such as Google Glass, which he sees proving more popular in the enterprise due to the initial price point – and if the technology isnt handled properly, consumer interest could drop off entirely.

“A good comparison is whats happened to 3D TV,” said Markkanen. “Earlier this month we saw one of the spaces biggest advocates, ESPN, kill off its 3D broadcasts because no one was watching them. Even for people who already owned these expensive 3D TV sets, having to wear the glasses has proved too much hassle.”

The next decade

Markkanen also shared his predictions for the next two, five, and ten years.

By 2015: “I think the best we can hope for is more utility-driven apps, stuff that people actually want to use more than once.”

In 2018: “AR wont feel as adventurous as it does today, but we wont see mass market adoption by then. The most prominent trend, potentially, is the emergence of social scavenger hunts as a new type of gaming. I think these could become a really major form of mass entertainment.”

By 2023: “Therell be something of a paradigm shift. AR still wont have replaced more traditional user interfaces – I dont think this will ever happen – but it could become a mainstream consumer technology.”