Changes in technology and the increasing availability of spectrum mean that determining a value for spectrum used for mobile broadband services is becoming more difficult for operators and regulators alike. So says Terry Norman, principal analyst at Analysis Mason, and lead analyst for the firm’s Spectrum research programme.

The analyst notes that the choice that operators now have – with spectrum from the IMT expansion band at 2.6GHz, refarmed spectrum in the 850, 900 and 1800MHz bands and digital dividend spectrum – along with spectrum capping at auctions and increasing network sharing between operators, have all contributed to a more complicated decision-making process.

Furthermore, cognitive technologies designed to exploit white-space spectrum could make the notion that any user of spectrum has exclusive access to the spectrum redundant.

The problem that regulators face is similarly challenging – not least of all how this will affect consultation processes on future spectrum awards, auction reserve prices, socioeconomic benefits and other issues.

“The value of spectrum has never been particularly easy to determine,” says Norman. “It depends on many variables that can be described collectively as the technical, commercial and strategic factors. 10 years ago, valuing spectrum was more straightforward, compared with today. A single lot of spectrum became available at a particular frequency, an operator estimated the value and, knowing its budget, entered into the auction.”

But Norman adds that in the last four years operators in a number of countries have bought similar spectrum, with the prices they have been prepared to pay varying enormously.

“With greater choice of spectrum, innovations like white space and the advance of technology may undermine the concept that spectrum is an asset, so the difficulty in valuing spectrum is only set to get worse,” he concludes.

Analysys Mason’s new research programme will examine a range of issues and challenges, including valuing spectrum; the impact of technology on auctions; and the future of the concept of a licence to exclusive transmission. It will also provide a tracker of past auctions, including prices paid per MHZ per person, bandwidth and auction winners; and details of forthcoming auctions. There’s more information here.