It’s tempting when you cover the mobile space to become a little obsessed by it, and to question why any company would not mobilise its product and service offerings.

This morning at Forrester’s Forum for Marketing Leaders, Forrester SVP, Idea Development, Josh Bernoff attempted to bring a hard analytical viewpoint to this idea, explaining how brands can make a call on how urgently and deeply they need to go mobile. To put things in context, Bernoff described the trend of consumers adopting mobile technology as “the most significant change we have seen in our lifetime”.

He described what Forrester terms the mobile mind shift as a complete change in the psychology of individuals and consumers; a move from going online to being perpetually connected; from looking things up to expecting them to be there.

He told delegates that this shift would “challenge your company in ways you cannot perceive”. He described the mobile mind shift as: “The expectation that any desired information or service is available on any appropriate device, in context, at your moment of need”. This means, he said, that “your company must deliver any desired information or service on any appropriate device, in context at the customer’s moment of need”.

He then described the two typical attitudes to mobile that he sees in companies. The first, which overstates the case, says that mobile will change everything. The second, which understates the case, is that it’s just another technology change, and that companies are used to dealing with these.What’s needed, said Bernoff, is a way to calibrate these approaches. To do so, Forrester has created the Mobile Mind Shift Index (MMSI) in order to quantify consumers’ attitudes towards mobile.

The Index is based on consumers’ responses to three questions, drawn from Forrester’s ongoing Consumer Technographics survey of more than 20,000 consumers in Europe. Firstly, how many connected devices, including mobiles, tablets, PCs, Smart TVs, games consoles etc, do they own (maximum score 20 points). Secondly, how frequently do they interact with online content on these devices (maximum score, 40 points). Thirdly, what is the diversity of locations, both in and out of the home, from where these interactions occur (maximum score, 40 points).

Adding the three totals together gives a score on the MMSI Index of 100. Now before you read on, where do you think we are on Forrester’s Index in developed markets? 50? 75?

Well, in the EU7 countries (UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden), the average score for online adults aged 18 and above for the three criteria is 10.7 + 9.9 + 4.1, giving a total of 24.7 out of 100. In the US, the scores are 9.6 + 13.2+ 5.1, giving a total of 27.9. As Bernoff pointed out, this shows that there is considerable potential for growth.

Overall scores for the individual EU countries are Germany – 22.5; UK – 23.5; France – 24.5; Italy – 25.4; the Netherlands – 27; Spain – 27.9; and Sweden – 29.Bernoff then went on to explain why these figures are perhaps lower than many of us might expect, by breaking the consumer audience down into a number of segments, based on their mobile behaviour.

Unshifted

The first segment is what Forrester calls the Disconnecteds. This group, which represents 47 per cent of European online adults, is typically over 45 years old. Just 16 per cent own a smartphone, and they tend to connect to online services wherever their PC is connected. Their MMSI score is below 20.

The next group are Dabblers, representing 21 per cent of European online adults. They are typically 30–50 years old. 68 per cent of Dabblers own a PC, 59 per cent own a smartphone, and they will connect daily, but mostly from inside their own home. Their MMSI score is 20–30.

The next group are Roamers, representing 16 per cent of European online adults. 79 per cent of these own a smartphone, and they connect frequently, both inside and outside the home. Their MMSI score is 30–40. However, they typically only use the stuff that came with the phone, and have largely not progressed to downloading and using their own selected apps. For this reason, Forrester groups the Roamers together with the Disconnecteds and the Dabblers as the ‘Unshifted’ segments.

Together, these three groups represent 84 per cent of the European online population. As Bernoff put it: “84 per cent of the European online population is not ready for mobile. So in Europe, there is only 16 per cent of the population left you can reach out to, but that 16 per cent is very demanding.”

Shifted

This 16 per cent breaks down into the final three segments, the ‘Shifted’ segments. The Adapters, representing 10 per cent of the European online population; the Immersers (4 per cent); and the Perpetuals (2 per cent). Among the Adapters, 87 per cent own a smartphone, 43 per cent own a tablet, and they have progressed to using banking apps and scanning barcodes. 11 per cent are high income, and their MMSI score is 40–50.

Among the Immersers, 63 per cent own a tablet, apps used include shopping, sports, reference and video, and they are 16 per cent more likely to be high income. Their MMSI score is 50–60. Among the final group, the Perpetuals, 92 per cent own a tablet, and they use dozens of apps. 40 per cent of this group are likely to be high income, 55 per cent have a high educational level, and 15 per cent are students. Their MMSI score is 60 or over.

“These Shifted segments demand mobile utility” Bernoff said. The Index can also be applied to handset ownership, and to individual companies. Windows Phone owners, for example, score 31.1 on the MMSI and 25 per cent are in the Shifted segments. For BlackBerry, it’s 31.3 and 26 per cent. For Android, it’s 34.1 and 31 per cent. And for iPhone, it’s 38.8 and 42 per cent.

How this helps brands, Bernoff went on to explain, is when you start to analyse the proportion of your customers in Shifted segments. So if your customer average MMSI score is 35 or over, and 35 per cent or more of them are in Shifted segments, they demand mobile utility now. If the average MMSI score is 20–35, and 12–35 per cent of them are in Shifted segments, they will demand it soon. And if the average MMSI score is below 20, and less than 12 per cent are in Shifted segments, you probably have a little more time. 

But as Bernoff told me after his presentation: “This is moving quickly, we are right at the beginning of this, so don’t wait too long.”

I’ve no doubt many in the mobile marketing business will be surprised at Forrester’s MMSI scores. If anything, they prove that where mobile is concerned, one size definitely doesn’t fit all, and despite how it may feel for those who have been working at this for a decade or more, it’s still very early days for the medium.