GroupM is forecasting significant growth in advertising revenue, despite fears of an impending recession and ongoing geopolitical situations around the world, in its Global Mid-Year Forecast, released today.
The report suggests that total global advertising revenues (excluding US political advertising), will rise by 10 per cent in 2022, in line with the forecast issued by GroupM in December.
In many markets, expectations are higher for 2022 now versus the December forecast, although China, the world’s second largest market, is now expected to grow at a much slower pace versus prior forecasts.
Looking out over the next five years, India is expected to grow by double digit levels, while many markets are now expected for grow by mid-to-high single digits. France, Germany, Brazil and Canada are expected to grow by high single digits. The US, Australia and the UK are more likely to grow by mid-single digits, while China is expected to grow by low single digits.
For digital advertising, GroupM expects 12 per cent growth in ad revenue, an expected deceleration from 2021’s 30 per cent growth rate. Under a broader definition of digital advertising, which includes traditional media’s digital extensions, GroupM estimates that the industry will account for revenues of $617bn (£506bn) in 2022, or 73 per cent of total revenues.
The top five sellers of advertising in 2021, a group including Google, Facebook, Alibaba and Bytedance, generated $408bn in ad revenue, or 53 per cent of the global total.
Television advertising is forecast to grow by 4 per cent in 2022, with GroupM noting that television is becoming increasingly global in ways it never was before as mostly US-based streaming services continue to invest aggressively in local-language content as they move into foreign markets.
It predicts that connected TV environments, including digital ad inventory from streaming services, will capture shares of existing budgets much more than they will drive new ones into the industry. And while television remains better than many alternatives for the purposes of satisfying reach and frequency goals, its reduced effectiveness will only encourage marketers to explore alternative strategies, the report notes.
Finally, for Out of Home, the report forecasts growth of 12 per cent in 2022, with many markets approaching or soon to exceed their pre-pandemic highs.