The rush by operators to deploy and launch mobile broadband services
will lead to a boom in the number of 3.5G subscribers worldwide, from
2.5 million at the end of 2006 to more than 200 million in 2010,
according to Future Mobile Broadband: HSPA, EV-DO, WiMAX & LTE, a
strategic report just published by Informa Telecoms & Media.
HSDPA will account for the majority of 3.5G mobile broadband
subscribers worldwide in 2011, the report states, followed by HSUPA,
EV-DO Revision A (EV-DOrA) and EV-DO Revision B (EV-DOrB). The top two
regions for HSDPA subscribers through 2011 will be Western Europe
followed by Asia-Pacific, with North America a distant third. Asia-Pacific will account for the majority of EV-DOrA/B subscribers through 2011, followed by North America.
The report identifies strengths and weaknesses in the emerging mobile
broadband ecosystem with comprehensive analysis of key value chain
segments including technologies, standards, systems, equipment,
chipsets, components, devices, applications and services.
It clarifies the current worldwide mobile broadband market, quantifies
the potential of the mobile broadband market, details the role Mobile
WiMAX will play in the emerging mobile broadband market, pinpoints the
key strengths and weaknesses, and provides comparative analysis.
“Vodafone has just launched HSDPA services in the UK but it is far from
alone,” says Mike Roberts, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms &
Media and co-author of the report. “There are already 34 live HSDPA
networks worldwide and another 43 in deployment,just six months after
the first HSDPA service was launched. Most WCDMA operators have clearly
decided that the benefits of upgrading to HSDPA – including download
speeds of 1-2Mbps compared to 384Kbps for WCDMA, and much lower
latency – are well worth the costs, particularly given the emergence of
competing systems such as EV-DOrA/B and Mobile WiMAX.”
In fact, the report points out, the success of EV-DO mobile broadband
services has driven some competing WCDMA operators to upgrade to
HSDPA, which in turn is leading EV-DO operators to upgrade to EV-DOrA.
For example, Verizon Wireless launched EV-DO in September 2003 and the
success of its BroadbandAccess EV-DO service helped drive Cingular
Wireless to launch the worlds first commercial HSDPA service in December 2005. Now Verizon is trialling EV-DOrA and rival
Sprint Nextel plans to launch EV-DOrA services in 1Q07.
Sprint Nextel
also plans to leapfrog the competition by launching what it calls a
4G mobile broadband service by 2008 using its 2.5GHz spectrum and an
advanced technology such as Flash-OFDM, EV-DOrC, TD-CDMA, 3G Long-Term
Evolution, Mobile WiMAX or
WiBro.
However, says Roberts, the transition to broadband creates as many
challenges as it does opportunities for mobile broadband operators.
“These range from major strategic challenges, such as how to
successfully navigate convergence and competition with fixed broadband
providers, to key operational challenges such as when and how to launch
mobile broadband services, what end-user segments to target with what devices and at what prices, and how to
differentiate services in an increasingly competitive market featuring
incumbent fixed and mobile operators as well as new entrants using new
technologies operating in new spectrum,” he says.
Mobile infrastructure and component suppliers face similar challenges
and will have to make major strategic moves to establish strong
positions in the emerging mobile broadband and convergence markets.
“In the infrastructure market Nokia is merging with Siemens
Communications and Alcatel with Lucent, so other mid-tier vendors such
as Motorola and Nortel will have to respond soon,” says Roberts.
The report costs 2,495 for a paper copy, 3,743 for a single-user PDF, or 4,990 for a single-user PDF plus paper copy.
For more information on the report click here.
To see a graph of 3.5G mobile subscribers by technology in 2011(forecast) click here.
