Informa Predicts Central & Eastern European Growth

Mobile operators in Central and Eastern Europe will increase their annual service revenues by more than 30% to $77 billion (55 billion) in 2013. As the rise in voice revenues levels off from 2011, overall growth will be driven by a doubling in the value of data revenues, which will reach $23.4 billion in 2013.
Thats the conclusion of a new report from Informa Telecoms & Media, Central & Eastern Europe: Mobile Market Analysis and Forecasts. The report shows that annual mobile data revenues in Central and Eastern Europe will increase 107% from $11.3 billion in 2008 to $23.4 billion in 2013. As a result, the proportion of operators revenue generated by data is forecast to increase by more than half, from 19.4% in 2008 to 30.4% by 2013.
Overall growth will be chiefly driven by continued expansion of the mobile subscription base, which Informa forecasts will increase almost 20%, from 447 million at end-2008 to 534 million at end-2013.
New customers will be signed up in fast-growing markets in Central Asia and the Balkans, says Abigail Browne, Senior Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. But growth will also be fuelled by the increasing tendency for people to maintain two or more SIM cards in active use in some cases buying the second for a mobile broadband connection.
Voice revenues from existing subscriptions will also rise gradually, thanks to increased usage. Leading Russian operators MTS and VimpelCom, for example, have already seen average outgoing and incoming minutes of use (MOU) exceed 200 per subscription per month in 2008, which can be attributed partly to promotions offering low-cost on-net calling.
Higher monthly rental incomes are also contributing to revenue growth in markets where operators have concentrated on migrating prepaid subscriptions onto contracts, and Informa says that this trend that will continue to have a positive impact on revenues in the region over the next five years.
The share of subscriptions on contracts in the Czech Republic, for example, increased by 3.3 percentage points over 2008, helping to shore up blended ARPU, as revenue from contract subscriptions increased, says Browne.
Informa cautions, however, that the forecasts may be impacted by the ongoing financial crisis, with leading operators in Central and Eastern Europe having registered a fall in revenue in Q4 08 reported in US dollars. This was due in large part to the sharp fall in the value of many of the regions currencies against the US dollar (the Ukrainian Hryvnia lost around 52% of its value in Q4 08 alone, while the Russian ruble and Polish zloty have both lost more than 30% of their value since September 2008).
Although voice revenues, particularly in the enterprise sector, are likely to be suppressed by the contraction of the regions economies, operators have expressed optimism that mobile data services will prove resilient.
The report offers an insight into the Central and Eastern European mobile markets, and the factors that have stimulated their development. This in-depth report will show you how your business can profit from the opportunities that this region presents. Key coverage includes:

  • Forecasts to 2013 for subscriptions, voice and data revenues, ARPU and take up of 3G technology, including individual subscription forecasts for 29 countries.
  • 21 in-depth country profiles, including significant technology, license and investment developments, subscriber and subscription numbers and operator market share. 
  • A regional overview, offering an  insight into the current status of regional and global operators strategies, acquisition plans and objectives.
  • Details of significant developments in the region, including mergers and acquisitions, branding, market segmentation and data revenues.
  • Expert commentary from industry analysts, identifying key trends and their significance to the market and region.

Theres more information about the report here.