Juniper Research has published its report, Mobile Applications & Apps Stores: Business Models, Opportunities & Forecasts 2009-2014. The study finds that direct and indirect revenues from mobile applications are expected to exceed $25 billion (16.5 billion) by 2014, with growth fuelled by a raft of store launches targeting both high-end and mass market handsets.
According to the report, while the overwhelming majority of application revenues are currently accrued from one-off downloads, the increasing utilisation of in-app billing to enable incremental revenues from additional mobile content will see value-added services (VAS) providing the dominant revenue stream by 2011. It also notes that many Tier 1 operators will seek to deploy their own app stores in a bid to maintain content revenue share.
The report stresses, however, that in the longer term, the greatest benefits to operators will be derived from data revenues associated with app usage, rather than from the retail price of apps and content, so long as operators reject the walled garden approach. The report also concludes that mobile games will remain the largest category in terms of overall app downloads and revenues, although multimedia and entertainment apps will attract the greatest share of VAS revenues from 2009 onwards.
The report provides an analysis of the opportunity for mobile applications and app stores, forecasting the market for six years and breaking down usage, download volumes and revenues by category of application (mobile game applications, lifestyle and healthcare apps, multimedia & entertainment apps, education & reference, finance & productivity and social networking).
Forecasts for app-billed value added services, including subscriptions, premium events and additional content, reveal a market value well in excess of standalone app downloads. The report also includes an investigation as to how apps are delivered both on-store and across traditional channels.
In addition, the report explains how developers, operators and OS providers have responded to the challenges laid down by Apples App Store, including a discussion of how Apple differentiated itself from traditional models of content distribution, monetisation and revenue share.
Questions answered by the report include:
- How will the mass deployment of app stores impact upon existing distribution content channels?
- How will the market for mobile applications develop over the next five years, and to what extent will growth be dependent upon onstore sales?
- What revenue streams will accrue from value-added services enabled by in-app billing?
- What opportunities do app stores offer for players across the mobile value chain?
- Which categories of mobile application will generate the largest revenues?
- How will app stores effect the distribution of entertainment and content revenues within the mobile ecosystem?
- Which players are poised to launch app stores in the short and medium term?
The report costs 1,750 for a single-user PDF or hardback copy; 2,500 for a multi- user licence; or 3,750 for an enterprise-wide licence. Theres more information here. 
