The analyst Chetan Sharma has released its analysis of the mobile industry for H1 2011. It’s the usual, thorough, exhaustive piece of work. This is an abridged version, we’ll be posting a longer version later, with a link from this one.

Chetan Sharma says it expects total revenues for the industry to touch approximately $1.3 trillion (£813bn) in 2011, with mobile data representing 24 per cent of the mix. Global mobile data revenues are expected to eclipse $300bn for the first time. 2011 is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues, at 53 per cent.

The analysts expects the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6bn by the end of 2011. The first 1bn took over 20 years; this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75m new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50m, but India is adding subscriptions at a faster rate, and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1bn in total subscriptions, making up 31 per cent of global subscriptions.

In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50 per cent mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26 per cent. Some operators expect 90 per cent of their devices sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, Chetan Sharma expects the US market to eclipse the 50 per cent mark in 2012.

China leads in the number of subs, but the US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in the top 10, including Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan and Mexico. At the same time, once dominant nations, including Korea, the UK, Italy and Germany, have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

The number of mobile operators with more than $1bn in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011, compared to just 13 in 2005. Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data, with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a  percentage of total ARPU. In 2011, it became the first major market to derives more than 50 per cent of its mobile revenue from data services. Australia and the US have also made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, looking at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation, due to the size of the market.

While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world currently, Chetan Sharma says the revenue-generating opportunity remains “downright anaemic” compared to other major markets, with average overall ARPU as low as $3.50. Even with a significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets, the analyst believes.

Here are Chetan Sharma’s key mobile trends for 2011:

• Total global subscriptions to hit 6bn, with India and China racing to 1bn each.
• Total global mobile revenues to hit $1.3 trillion, almost 2 per cent of global GDP. The top 10 operators control 43 per cent of the global mobile revenues.
• Total global mobile Data revenues to eclipse $300bn. Non-messaging data now represents 53 per cent of global mobile data revenues.
• Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales and revenue. The majority of device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device replacement is shrinking.
• Mobile broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations. There will be over 1bn broadband connections by the end of 2011.
• Global mobile apps revenue has shifted to off-deck. The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region.
• All major markets are consolidating, with the top 3 players at 85 per cent of the market. Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth.
• Mobile Data Traffic will represent 95 per cent of global mobile traffic by 2015. Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next five years.
• Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace. Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment.
• Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging. These include Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name but a few.
• The mobile ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable. Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue-generating mobile platforms.
• There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100. The value chains will be continually disrupted every 12-24 months by the new players and business models.
• Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy. The top 20 control on third of the overall mobile patent pool.

For a longer version of this article, with more detailed analysis, click here.