Mobile Subscriber Numbers Hit 4.7bn

The global mobile market grew by almost 200 million subscriber connections in the fourth quarter of 2010 to reach 4.7 billion by year-end, according to the latest Wireless Intelligence report, ‘Quarterly World Review: Q4 2009’.Asia-Pacific remained the worlds largest region, accounting for over 45% (2.1 billion) of global mobile connections, mainly due to strong growth in India and China. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 62% of the net new connections added in the quarter. 

In total, 192.8 million mobile connections were added in Q4 2009, an annual rise of 16% and up 4% on a sequential basis. GSM connections accounted for 80% of total connections, while WCDMA and CDMA accounted for 10% each. Prepaid connections accounted for 73%, while postpaid (contract) connections accounted for the remaining 27%. Wireless Intelligence calculates that total global mobile penetration reached 69% by year-end.

The quarter also saw the launch of 30 new mobile networks, including the first two networks based on the next generation Long Term Evolution (LTE) mobile standard.

“2009 was a positive year for the mobile telecoms industry and one that saw it outperform global economic trends,” says Joss Gillet, Senior Analyst at Wireless Intelligence. “Nonetheless, the fact that developing countries account for half of the worlds connections today demonstrates how mature markets are reaching capacity. From Europe to the Americas, the prospects for the year ahead depend on how quickly mobile operators can boost revenues generated by data services. By contrast, in regions such as Africa and the Asia-Pacific, many price-sensitive markets require investment to expand 2G and 3G networks, which have been delayed by the global recession. In such a challenging competitive environment, time-to-market is more critical than ever to sustain growth and differentiate from competition.”

Regional Highlights
Asia-Pacific (2.1 billion connections, 45% of global total) – The worlds two largest mobile markets – China and India – were responsible for the majority of growth in the Asia-Pacific region. India surpassed half a billion connections during Q4 2009, adding 53.4 million net additions and closing the quarter on 525.2 million connections. Indian growth is linked to the fact that many existing operators launched their networks in new circles (service areas) in the quarter, while new market entrants also appeared. Meanwhile, China added an average of 9 million net additions per month during 2009, ending the year with a total 726 million connections – 16% of the worldwide total. Chinese 3G connections reached 10 million by year-end. Third-placed operator China Telecom is doing better than expected on the back of bundled deals, and is doing especially well in 3G, helping it catch up with its two larger competitors.

Western Europe (519 million, 11%)
– Connections growth in Western Europe improved in the second half of 2009, following a slow start to the year. However, the number of operators reporting negative quarterly net additions increased in Q4 2009, with TIM Italy having a particularly bad quarter. On the plus side, revenue from 3G data services is growing is most markets, which is beginning to have a significant effect on data ARPU. Notable network launches in the quarter included three HSPA+ launches in Finland (DNA), Spain (Telefónica) and Switzerland (Swisscom), as well as the first two LTE network deployments in the world launched by TeliaSonera in Oslo (Norway) and Stockholm (Sweden) in December 2009.

Americas (504 million, 11%) – The Americas region grew by 11% in the quarter to exceed 500 million mobile connections by year-end, reaching 86% market penetration. Brazil still accounts for one third of connections in the region, and grew its installed base by 16% in 2009 to 176 million connections, adding 8 million net additions in Q4. Mexico and Argentina are the second- and third-largest markets adding 1.7 million and 1.5 million connections, respectively, in the quarter. However, many markets in the region are approaching high levels of maturity, which has seen operators look to data services in order to gain revenue share. Regulatory initiatives (including taxes and mobile number portability) also affected operators in many regional markets. 

Eastern Europe (480 million, 10%) – Eastern European operators continue to show signs of market slowdown. The region is showing signs of a high level of maturity, reaching 120% market penetration in the quarter, and mobile connections growth is mainly driven by replacement and multiple SIMs. The region passed the 480 million connections mark by year-end, representing a 7% annual growth rate – way below the world average of 15%. There are promising signs in Eastern Europe of strong 3G connections growth, though future progress in this area will depend on extra network investment by the large operator groups in the region, many of whom scaled back such investments in 2009.

Africa (464 million, 10%) – Nigeria remains Africa’s largest mobile market with total connections reaching 73 million by the end of 2009. The addition of 4.1 million connections in Q4 2009 made it Nigeria’s strongest quarter for a year. Over half of these net additions were gained by market-leader MTN, which reached 30.8 million connections. In South Africa, SIM card registration (introduced from August 2009) has had a significant impact, with Q4 witnessing a second consecutive quarter of connection losses in excess of 1 million.

USA/Canada (309 million, 7%) – The US market witnessed its strongest quarterly connections’ growth in three years by amassing 5.9 million net additions in Q4 2009. Market-leader Verizon ended Q4 2009 with 91.2 million total connections following net additions of 2.2 million, the operators highest pro forma net additions since Q3 2008. Second-placed AT&T reported 2.7 million net additions – the operator’s second-highest quarterly total ever. AT&T’s figures were boosted by the completion of its acquisition of Centennial Wireless in November, which added 863,000 connections. In Canada, Bell Mobility (BCE) and Telus Mobility launched their shared HSPA/HSPA+ network in November, which they claim is four times larger than market-leader Roger Wireless ’ HSPA+ footprint.

Middle East (261 million, 6%) – Turkey ended 2009 with 62.9 million connections, maintaining its position as the largest market in the Middle East region despite a decline of 918,000 connections in the last quarter and 3.1 million year-on-year. The quarterly decline was led by market-leader Turkcell, which reported its fourth consecutive quarter of negative net additions with a loss of 600,000 connections. In Iran, the second-largest market in the region, MTN Irancell reported strong connections growth in Q4 with net additions of 2.6 million, enabling it to increase its market share to 40%.
The new Wireless Intelligence report Quarterly World Review: Q4 2009 is available to registered members and select members of the media. For more information send an email to: info@wirelessintelligence.com