Masterclassing

Top Consultant Declares Nokia 'Dead'

Andy Penfold

Nokia is achieving a "world record in destruction of any brand or company", according to a leading mobile consultant. 

In his blog, Tomi Ahonen has tracked the smartphone marketshare of the leading smartphone companies, and it is not happy reading for Nokia. In 2009, he says, Nokia had a 39 per cent smartphone marketshare; in 2012 it is just 5 per cent. 

RIM is also shown to have had a dire three years - the company's smartphone market share has plummeted from 20 per cent in 2009 to 7 per cent today. 

"Nokia's collapse is dramatic," says Ahonen's blog. "It is actually historically unprecedented for a global market share leader, in any industry, ever. No company lost seven out of every eight customers it had in a period of three years. But now compare to RIM. Yes, BlackBerry is in deep trouble, but these two are not in any kind of scale. RIM is in trouble, Nokia is dead."

Ahonen lays the blame for Nokia's demise at the door or Microsoft - as Nokia signed a deal to create Windows Phones back in 2011. He describes the relationship between the two companies as that of a "parasite" and a host - with Microsoft sucking Nokia dry. He says Microsoft needs Nokia to keep its smartphone business alive - but Nokia "certainly dies with Microsoft". 

Nokia's market share has plummeted following CEO Stephen Elop's decision to back the Window's Phone OS in February last year. Excluding Nokia's Symbian partners, Nokia had 33 per cent market share in year 2010, and is estimated to have 5 per cent at the end of 2012.

Microsoft's deal with Nokia gave it a 2 per cent jump from 2 per cent to 4 per cent from 2011 to projected end of 2012. 

Elsewhere in the blog, Ahonen says that the growth rate of Apple's iPhone is small compared to that of Samsung. "What Apple needs very soon, is to split its model range or it will soon be an also-ran," he says. 

You can read the full blog post here. The blog takes data from Ahonen's Mobile Forecast 2012-2015 ebook, which can be purchased for £89 here