The percentage of UK online sales made through a mobile device could reach one in five (20 per cent) by Christmas 2012, with the percentage of site visits from mobile hitting one in three.

The forecast comes off the back of the latest results from the IMRG Capgemini Quarterly Benchmarking Index, which finds that the percentage of sales through mobile devices rose to 11.6 per cent in Q2, 2012, up from 8.2 per cent in the first quarter.

Since the beginning of 2010, the penetration of mobile in terms of UK eRetail sales has increased by 2,900 per cent, rising from just 0.4 per cent of eRetail sales in Q1, 2010 to 11.6 per cent in the last quarter. Site visits through mobile devices also rose significantly in the second quarter, reaching 21.1 per cent of visits to UK eRetail websites, up from 16.4 per cent in the previous quarter.

The research also revealed that the visitor bounce rate for Q2 rose to 29 per cent, the highest yet recorded in the two and a half years that it has been tracked. This suggests that consumers are becoming ever-more demanding when it comes to initial site engagement; the average bounce rate was 22 per cent in 2010 and 24 per cent in 2011; year-to-date in 2012, the average bounce rate is 28 per cent.

There were some positive signs in terms of basket abandonment rates, as the average rate fell five percentage points in Q2 to 55 per cent. Although basket abandonment has been falling, the rate at which it is happening is only marginal and the overall level remains high. The average was 61 per cent in 2010, 60 per cent in 2011 and 58 per cent for the year-to-date in 2012.

“The second decade of this century will be viewed in history as the decade when the mobile device became the point of access to digital services,” says Chris Webster, VP, consumer products and retail at Capgemini. “This has happened very quickly for commerce services, and by the end of this year, 20 per cent of all digital commerce transactions will be completed on mobile devices. Combine this with the ability to identify ourselves (iris or fingerprint recognition etc), to hold information on ourselves (eg. Apple passbook launching this autumn on iOS6) and to access such services while on the move, and the mobile device will be the must-have item when you leave the house; just imagine when your passport and driving licence can also be held (or accessed) through the device. One final hurdle to clear: what happens when the battery goes flat?”